FORECASTS & CLIMATOLOGY
Florida hurricanes: Day of the week.
Local hurricane risk: R code for generating return periods from historical data.
Historical hurricane extrapolation track model. The model is based on the idea that given a large sample of possible storms weighted by similarity to characteristics of the best forecast (e.g., forward motion, intensity, etc), use the weighted ensemble to extrapolate beyond the forecast horizon given by the best prediction (National Hurricane Center).
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean tropical cyclone climatology.
Long-Range Outlook: Issued July 2001. Forecast Range = 30 years (Count in parentheses is total for 2001-2007).
|For more information contact James Elsner|