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Florida State University
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Assignment #2Projections Using the
Extrapolation Technique You are a planner for Florida’s
Great Northwest, Inc. an economic development organization set up to
promote development in the Florida Panhandle. You have been tasked by the FGN
Board to develop population projections for several of the counties in the
region ( For these five counties you will prepare a set of
population projections through the year 2030. These population projections
should use total population data for the county from 1920-2000, data gathered
from the Decennial Census in years ending in “0”. You will need
to get this data from the census web site. For these population projections you will: 1) generate population projections using each of the six curves discussed
in class, including both variations of the asymptotic curves, and 2) use three different base periods for these forecasts: 1920-2000,
1950-2000, 1980-2000. In sum, you
should be generating twenty-seven different population projections for each
county, nine for each base year: 1) Linear, 2) Geometric, 3) Parabolic, 4)
Mod Exp, 5) Mod Exp with Upper Limit, 6) Gompertz, 7) Gompertz with Upper
Limit, 8) Logistic, 9) Logistic with Upper Limit. * *Note: You are being asked to
identify an Upper Limit for each county yourself. (Hint: Try different upper limits to see how the model
responds.) To help
you prepare these projections you need to download and utilize the three Excel
Extrapolation Models available at: http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~tchapin/urp5261/exercise/models.htm What is to be Turned In You are to turn in the following deliverables: 1) Prepare a memo to Florida Great Northwest, Inc.
that briefly discusses the methodology, summarizes the findings of
your analysis, and makes a preliminary recommendation as to the “best
fitting” extrapolation curve for each county. Be sure to identify why this
projection was chosen as the best fitting one for a given county. There is no
need, however, to discuss a “scenario” for each county, simply
rely upon the appropriate quantitative and qualitative techniques to choose a
“best fitting” curve. 2) One summary table for each
county that showcases the “top six” projection. This table should clearly
identify the curve utilized, as well as the base period. (See Example Table 1
on the assignment handout) Note that you can have any mix of projections and
base periods; these are supposed to be the “six finalists” for
each county’s population projection. 3) One summary table for each
county that illustrate the evaluation statistics for each of these
“top six” projections. (See Example Table 2 on the assignment handout) 4) One chart for each county
that illustrates your “best fitting” projection. The chart should include the observed data
as well as the chosen projection for the county. (See Example Figure 1 on the
assignment handout) Assignment
Collaboration I want to
encourage collaboration on this assignment in undertaking the work and
analyzing the results. However, while groups of students may work together to
calculate these projections, everyone is to turn in their own memo and
summary tables and charts. Assignment Specifications
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Prepare a professional memo to ·
Please do not put your name on the assignment. Make the memo from Planner XXXX
where the XXXX represents the last four digits of your Social Security
Number. ·
12 point font, 1 inch margins, double-spacing. ·
Spell-check and re-read your responses. ·
Be precise in the language you use to discuss your findings. ·
Be precise in your presentation of your data. Title and correctly
label all tables, charts, and figures. These tables and figures should be
numbered consecutively (Table 1, Table 2, etc.; Figure 1, Figure 2, etc.) and
referred to in the text of the memo. Assignment Due Friday, February 13TH
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