Base Multiplier
1. The ratio of
the total employment in year t to the basic sector employment in that year.
2. The employment multiplier that estimates local basic sector
employment impacts and allows analysts to project non-basic sector job creation
given an increase in basic sector employment.
Base Period
Base Year
The year of the earliest data used in the projection
Basic Sector (or Local Sector)
That part of the local economy that consists of firms and parts of firms whose economic activity is dependent on factors external to the local economy.
Cohort
Portions of a given
population identified by their age and sex (and sometimes racial)
characteristics. The male cohort aged 0-4 refers to those males in a given
population aged 0-4.99 at a given time. The population is broken into these
groups in the Cohort-Component Model so that the different components of
population change (births, deaths, migration) can be applied more precisely to
an area's population.
Component
The three means of change to a given population; Births, Deaths, and
Migration. Because the components of population change are experienced
differently by males and females, at different ages, and by different racial
groups, the Cohort-Component Model applies the rates of change for these
components to the different age/sex (and race) cohorts.
Contingency
Forecast
A statement of a possible future, including the highest and lowest
plausible levels of population.
County Business Patterns
An important source of local employment data. Included are the number
of firms, employees, and measures of outputs for firms by SIC code.
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Economic Base
1. A theory for understanding the local economy that breaks that
economy into a basic and a non-basic sector.
2. An analytical technique that divides the local economy into basic
and non-basic sectors and then calculates a base multiplier to determine the impact of the "engine"
(the basic sector) of the local economy.
Estimate
A calculation of a current or past value of a variable typically
based on symptomatic indicators of change in that variable.
An analyst cannot "estimate" future conditions.
Exponential Curve
An
Export
A product or service that
is sold outside of the local economic area by a local firm.
Fertility Rate
The likelihood that a given "at risk" population (females aged 10-49) will give birth in a given period of time. These rates, estimated by the US Census Bureau, are provided only for age-specific groups 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 34-39, 40-44, 44-49.
Firm
A company that employs any number of employees. A business, company,
or corporation.
Forecast
The projection selected as the one most likely to provide an
accurate prediction of the future value of a variable. This is a judgmental statement
about what the analyst believes to be the most likely future.
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Import
A product or service that is brought into and sold in the local
economic area by a non-local firm.
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Launch
Year
The year of the most recent data used in the projection
Linear Curve
An
Location Quotient
A calculated ratio between the local economy and the economy of some
reference unit that. This ratio is calculated for all industries to determine
whether or not the local economy has a greater share of that industry than
expected. If an industry has a greater share than expected of a given industry,
then that "extra" industry employment is assumed to be Basic because
those jobs are above what a local economy should have to serve local needs.
Non-basic
sector (or non-local sector)
That part of the local economy that consists of firms and parts of
firms whose economic activity is dependent on local economic conditions.
Normative
Forecast
Statement about the desired future. An attainable future whose
definition has evolved from the planning process.
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Projection
The numerical outcome of a particular set of assumptions regarding
future values of a variable
Projection
Interval
The increment in which projections are made
Pure Forecast
The “most likely” future given unanticipated public or private initiatives.
This is a predicted future based upon the continuation of existing trends and
expected initiatives.
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Shift-Share
Technique
A modification to the constant-share projection formula that
introduces a shift term to the formula. This technique attempts to account for
differences between a given industry's local growth rate and the reference region's
growth rate that results in the shift of that industry's employment into or out
of a region. Past share of a given industry is no longer assumed to be
constant.
Shift
Term
The key difference between the Shift-Share technique and the
Constant Share technique. This term is calculated by subtracting the Regional
Growth Rate for a given industry over a given period of time from the Local
Growth rate for a given industry over a given period of time: {Local GR
Industry I - Regional GR Industry I}.
Standard
Industrial Classification (SIC)
A classification system that organize industries in an increasing
level of detail ranging from general economic sectors (i.e. manufacturing,
services) to specific industry segments (i.e. commercial sports, laundry businesses).
This system organizes industries by their output. However, SIC Codes have
recently been bypassed by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) that resulted from North American Free Trade
Agreement.
Survival Rate
A rate calculated for a
given geographic area that presents the likelihood that a person will survive
in a given period of time. These rates are usually calculated for five year
Age/Sex/Race cohorts and applied in the Cohort-Component Model. For
example, white males aged 10-14 might have a five year survival rate of .99240,
which means that 99.24% of the males are expected to survive the next five year
period. The US Census Bureau calculates this statistic at the state level for all
states.
Target
Year(s)
The year(s) for which the variable is projected
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