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SYLLABUS

 

Florida State University 
Department of Urban and Regional Planning
URP 5261: Forecasting for Plan Development




 

 

Lectures Notes

Week 1: Course Overview; Introduction to Forecasting
·        Introduction to Forecasting
Week 2: Demographics Basics; Data for Population Analysis
·        Demographics Basics

·        Overview of the Census
Week 3: Census Geography; Issues with the Census
·        Overview of Census Geography

·        Issues with the Census
Week 4: Other Population Data Sources; Introduction to Bay County
·        Other Population Data/Symptomatic Indicators of Population

·        Introducing Bay County

·        Overview of Bay County’s Economy

·        Overview of the Group Project
Week 5: The Extrapolation Technique
·        Extrapolation Technique Overview

·        Evaluating the Extrapolation Curves
Week 6: Ratio techniques; Intro to CC Method
·        Overview of Ratio Techniques

·        Simple Ratio Techniques Example

·        Assignment #1 Recap

·        The CC Technique: Mortality and Fertility
Week 7: The Cohort Component Technique Continued
·        The CC Technique: Migration

·         Improving the CC Technique
 
Week 8: Choosing a Method; Scenario Building
·        Choosing a Projection Method

·        Scenario Building

·        Franklin County Forecast Report (see Chapter 2 for the Forecast Scenario  for Franklin County)

Week 9: Presentation Techniques
·        Presentation Techniques
 
Week 10: Spring Break
 
Week 11: Intro to Economic Data
·         Economic Data Overview

·         Economic Data Sources
 
Week 12: Economic Base Analysis
·        Specialization and Concentration (Powerpoint)

·        Specialization and Concentration (Excel Example)

Week 13: Economic Base Theory and Analysis
·        Economic Base Theory Reviewed

·        Assignment #3 Recap

·        Assumption and Location Quotient Techniques

·        Assumption and LQ Example (Excel)
 
Week 14: Min Requirements Technique
·        Minimum Reqirements Overview
 
Week 15: Employment Projection Techniques
·        Constant Share and Shift Share

·        Con and Shift Share Franklin County Example (Excel)
 
Assignment #3 and #4 Answers
Link to Page with Answers to Assignment #3 and #4
 
Week 16: Advanced Economic Analysis; Course Wrap-Up
·        Input Output Analysis Overview

·        Input-Output Analysis Simplified Example (Excel)

·        RIMS II Handbook, including example RIMS Multipliers (PDF)

·        Modeling Population and Economic Change Together