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Florida State University 
Department of Urban and Regional Planning
Planning Methods III: Forecasting 

Example

Example
Results

Discussion
Questions

ASSUMPTION TECHNIQUE
EXAMPLE: KING COUNTY

Example

Using SIC Code data for King County in 1994, we can illustrate the Assumption Technique. In Table 1 are presented the employment figures for the Major Industrial Sectors.

Table 1: King County Employment by Major Industrial Sector, 1994

In Table 2 we can begin to apply our Assumption Technique. We have assumed that King County's Agriculture, Mining, and Manufacturing sectors are basic and all other sectors are non-basic. This is the most basic application of this Technique.

Table 2: Assumption Technique Applied

In Table 2 we have also calculated totals for our Basic and Non-Basic Sectors so that we can then calculate our Base Multiplier. In Table 2 we see that Basic employment totals 188,235 and Non-basic employment totals 652,062. Using the Base Multiplier formula:

Base Multiplier =	Total Employment Year i	=840,297	=4.46
	Basic Employment Year i	=188,235

Example Results

• In this example, King County has a Base Multiplier of 4.46 when calculated using the Assumption Technique.

• This multiplier estimates that for every one Basic Sector job created, 3.46 Non-basic Sector jobs are created.

Discussion Questions

• Would an employer like Boeing be pleased with these results? Would this finding help or hinder their argument that they deserve special tax consideration by the county?

• What problems/limitations do you see with this technique?

• In the King County example above, data from the Major Industrial Sectors was used. What would happen if the assumption technique were applied at a finer level of data, say, the Three-Digit level? Would some of your assumptions change? How so?

• Give two examples of how your assumptions would change if you were to use the Assumption Technique for King County at the Three-Digit Level.

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