Summer 1997 Mon, Thu 8-11:30

Will Moore 644-6924

Department of Political Science Bellamy 541

Florida State University whmoore@garnet.acns.fsu.edu

This course reviews the core literature that investigates the relationship between domestic and international conflict behavior. While we do not cover all of the work that is related to this topic, the course provides an excellent introduction and covers much of the material. Diplomats, pundits, journalists and historians typically consider the claim that there is a relationship between domestic and international conflict behavior to be non-controversial. We will learn that this belief is naive.

The literature is far from achieving a consensus. In the 1960's Rummel launched a spate of interest in empirical inquiry on the topic, but these studies failed to uncover systematic relationships, and research on the topic waned in the mid-70's. In the mid-80's Ostrom and Job published a study claiming that US Presidents manipulated international crisis behavior for electoral gains, and this study spurred a new round of empirical and theoretical research. In addition, in the 1990's David Davis and I have argued that action-reaction models of conflict behavior can help us understand the linkages between domestic and international conflict behavior. In addition, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has led a number of scholars who have launched a rational choice research program in the 1990s. Finally, a number of scholars have, over the past 3 decades, examined the purported link between revolution and war.

Evaluation

Your grade for the course will be based on class participation (40%) and a research design paper (60%). You are expected to have completed the assigned reading and contribute to the seminar. For the research design paper you are required to describe a theoretically driven empirical analysis that you would like to conduct. You will not actually do the analysis, but your paper must describe in detail not only the question you are invetsigating, but the theoretical answer you are proposing, the hypothesis you intend to test, the indicators you would use to operationalize the concepts in the hypothesis, and the method you would emply to draw inferences from the evidence. For the paper you can assume you have a $1 million research budget available to gather evidence and conduct the study. The research design paper is due by 5 pm on Friday 1 August.

The following books are available for purchase in the bookstore:

• Hagan, Joe D. 1993. Political Opposition and Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective, Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

• Holsti, Ole R. 1996. Public opinion and American foreign policy, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

• Huth, Paul K. 1996. Standing Your Ground, Ann Arbor: Michigan UP.

• Walt, Stephen M. 1996. Revolution and war, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

Copies are also available at the reserve desk of the library. The remainder of the readings are available for purchase in a reader that can be purchased at the Bellamy copy center (these readings are not on reserve).

The readings are organized in joint chronological/theoretical groupings:

I. Foundations--the original empirical and (sort of) theoretical studies

II. Literature Reviews--the mixed findings produced a great deal of angst and discussion

III. US Presidents and Force--the literature is revived by studying US Presidents

IV. Action-Reaction & Other Empirical Analyses--some recent work has focused on

action-reaction and other processes.

V. Rational Choice Theories--an abundance of rational choice theories has been

published recently.

VI. Revolution and War--some work focuses explicitly on revolution

Please note that the `Democratic Peace' literature is not covered in this course. That literature warrants a course on its own, so rather than give it scant coverage, I ignore it here. This should not be meant to imply that it is either irrelevant or unimportant: it is both relevant and important.

Mon, 23 June: No assigned reading.

Thu, 26 June:

• Sumner, W.G. 1906. Folkways, Boston: Ginn, pp. 12-15.

• Coser, Lewis. 1956. The Functions of Social Conflict, New York: The Free Press, pp. 33-38, 87-110.

• Rosenau, James N. 1968. "Introduction: Political Science in a Shrinking World," in J. N. Rosenau (ed.) Linkage Politics, New York: The Free Press, pp. 1-17.

• Blainey, G. 1973. The Causes of War. New York: Free Press, pp. 68-86.

• Gourevitch, P. A. 1978. ``The Second Image Reversed,'' International Organization 32:881-912.

Mon, 30 June:

• Tanter, R. 1966. "Dimensions of Conflict Behavior within and between Nations, 1958-1960," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 10:41-64.

• Wilkenfeld, J. 1968. ``Domestic and Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations'' Journal of Peace Research, 5:56-69.

• Hazelwood, L. 1973. ``Externalizing Systemic Stress.'' in J. Wilkenfeld (ed.) Conflict Behavior and Linkage Politics, New York: David McKay and Co. [on reserve at Strozier Library]

• Burrowes, R. and B. Spector. 1973. ``The Strength and Direction of Relationships Between Domestic and External Conflict and Cooperation: Syria, 1961-67,'' in J. Wilkenfeld (ed.) Conflict Behavior and Linkage Politics, New York: David McKay and Co, 294-323. [on reserve at Strozier Library]

• Hazlewood, L. 1975. ``Diversion Mechanisms and Encapsulation Processes: The Domestic Conflict-Foreign Conflict Hypothesis Reconsidered,'' in P.J. McGowan (ed.) Sage International Yearbook of Foreign Policy Studies, Beverly Hills: Sage, volume 3, 213-244.

Thu, 3 July:

• Scolnick, J. M., Jr. 1974. ``An Appraisal of Studies of the Linkage Between Domestic and International Conflict,'' Comparative Political Studies, 6:485-509.

• Mack, A. 1975. ``Numbers are not Enough: A Critique of Internal/External Conflict Behavior Research,'' Comparative Politics, 7:597-618.

• Zinnes, D. A. 1976. Contemporary Research in International Relations, New York: The Free Press, pp. 159-182.

• Stein, A.A. 1976. "Conflict and Cohesion: A Review of the Literature," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 20:143-172.

Mon, 7 July:

• Stohl, M. 1980. ``The Nexus of Civil and International Conflict.'' In T.R. Gurr, (ed.) Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research. New York: Free Press, pp. 297-330.

• Levy, Jack S. 1988. "Domestic Politics and War," Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18: 345-369. [on reserve at Strozier Library]

• Levy, J. S. 1993. "The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique," Handbook of War Studies, in M.I. Midlarsky (ed.), Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 259-288. [on reserve at Strozier Library]

• Starr, Harvey. 1994. "Revolution and War: Rethinking the Linkage bewteen Internal and External Conflict," Political Research Quarterly, 47:481-507.

Thu, 10 July:

• Ostrom, Charles and Brian Job. 1986. ``The President and the Political Use of Force,'' American Political Science Review, 80:541-566.

• James, P. and J.R. Oneal. 1991. ``The Influence of International and Domestic Politics on the President's Use of Force,'' Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35:307-332.

• Morgan, T. C. and K. Bickers. 1992. ``Domestic Discontent and the Use of Force,'' Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36:25-52.

• Brace, Paul and Barbara Hinckley. 1992. Follow the Leader, New York: Basic Books, pp. 91-114.

• Lian, Bradley and John Oneal. 1993. "Presidents, the Use of Force, and Public Opinion," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 37:277-300.

• Meernick, James. 1994. "Presidential Decision Making and the Political Use of Military Force," International Studies Quarterly, 38:121-138.

• DeRouen, Karl. 1995. "The Indirect Link," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39:671-695.

Mon, 14 July:

• Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Presidents and Public Opinion, New YorK Wiley, pp. 265-268.

• Russett, Bruce M. and Thomas W. Graham. 1993. The Handbook of War Studies, in M.I. Midlarsky (ed.), Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 239-257. [on reserve at Strozier Library]

• Brody, Richard A. 1992. Assessing the president: the media, elite opinion, and public support , Stanford: Stanford University Press, pp. 7-78. [on reserve at Strozier Library]

• Page, Benjamin I. and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1992. The rational public: fifty years of trends in Americans' policy preferences, Chicago : University of Chicago Press, pp. 1-36, 172-284. [on reserve at Strozier Library]

• Lanoue, David J. and Barbara Headrick. 1994. "Prime ministers, parties, and the public - the dynamics of government popularity in great britain," Public opinion quarterly, 58:191-209.

• Holsti, Ole R. 1996. Public opinion and American foreign policy, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. ch's 1-4, 6.

Thu, 17 July:

• Vincent, J. E. 1981. ``Internal and External Conflict: Some Previous Operational Problems and some New Findings,'' Journal of Politics, 43:128-142.

• Ward, M. D. and Ulrich Widmaier. 1982. ``The Domestic-International Conflict Nexus: Some New Evidence and Old Hypotheses,'' International Interactions, 9:75-101.

• Hagan, Joe D. 1993. Political Opposition and Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective, Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

Mon, 21 July:

• Davis, David R. and Michael D. Ward. 1990. "They Dance Alone," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34:449-475.

• Moore, Will H. 1995. "Action-Reaction or Rational Expectations?" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39:129-167.

• Davis, David R. and Will H. Moore. 1997. "Ethnicity Matters," International Studies Quarterly, 41:171-184.

• Moore, Will H. and David R. Davis. 1998. "Ties that Bind?" Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming.

• Gelpi, Christopher. 1997. "Democratic diversions - Governmental structure and the externalization of domestic conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41:255-282.

Thu, 24 July:

• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and David Lalman. 1992. War and Reason, New Haven: Yale University Press, pp. 1-144. [on reserve at Strozier Library]

• Fearon, James D. 1994. "Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes." American Political Science Review 88: 577-592.

• Wang, Kevin. 1996. "Presidential Responses to Foreign Policy Crises," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40:68-97.

• Smith, Alastair. 1996. "Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems," International Studies Quarterly, 40:133-184.

• Fearon, James D. 1997. "Signaling Foreign Policy Interests," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41:68-90.

Mon, 28 July:

• Downs, George W. and David M. Rocke. 1995. Optimal imperfection? Domestic uncertainty and institutions in international relations, Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 56-75.

• Simon, Marc V. and Harvey Starr. 1996. "Extraction, allocation, and the rise and decline of states - a simulation analysis of two-level security management." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40:272-297.

• Huth, Paul K. 1996. Standing Your Ground, Ann Arbor: Michigan UP.

• Lohmann, Susanne. 1997. "Linkage Politics," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41:38-67.

Thu, 31 July:

• Gurr, T. R. and R. Duvall. 1973. ``Civil Conflict in the 1960s: A Reciprocial System with Parameter Estimates.'' Comparative Political Studies, 6:135-170.

• Tilly, C. 1985. "Connecting Domestic and International Conflicts, Past and Present," in U. Luterbacher and M.D. Ward (eds.) Dynamic Models of International Conflict, Boulder: Lynne Reinner, pp. 517-531.

• Gurr, T. R. 1988. ``War, Revolution and the Growth of the Coercive State,'' Comparative Political Studies, 21:45-65.

• Maoz, Z. 1989. ``Joining the Club of Nations: Political Development and International Conflict, 1816-1976,'' International Studies Quarterly, 33:199-231.

• Walt, Stephen M. 1996. Revolution and war, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.